The 2004 election is only eleven days away, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t say something about it. I step into the discussion of politics gingerly, however, as is my non-confrontational nature. I have my biases, as I will explain, but I also recognize that we are a greatly divided nation and region. I respect others’ political views, while fervently praying that they will see the light. I also take the “fallibilist” point of view that I may be wrong myself. Those ninnies on the other side of the issues may be right, after all, and I may be wrong, darnit.

I’ll briefly look at the election in Minnesota this week and the other states in the region next week. On November 5 I’ll discuss the outcome of the election, with the possibility that the discussion may continue beyond that if there is a recount or some other delay in results. I don’t intend for the subject of politics to become a dominant part of this column, but it may show up regularly in the future.

The latest polls tell us that the election will be close even here in Minnesota, a state that was once considered a lock for the Democrats and that has not gone to a Republican presidential candidate since 1972. I hope to examine Minnesota’s transition from a “liberal lock” to a “swing state” some time, but for now let’s consider the situation at hand.

A poll from the Pioneer Press, a Knight-Ridder newspaper read mainly in St. Paul, shows the United States presidential race for Minnesota’s ten electoral college votes to be a dead heat. A Pioneer Press poll published today has George W. Bush ahead of John Kerry 47 to 45 percent, a statistically insignificant lead. Two percent of those polled said they would vote for Ralph Nader (yes, he’s on the ballot here), and six percent were undecided.

The same article says that the race has not changed much since September and adds that undecided voters tend to go for the challenger at the last minute. That bodes well for Kerry. Other polls done in October showed Kerry with a narrow lead. An October 13 “Minnesota Poll” from the Star Tribune, the other Twin Cities newspaper, showed Kerry ahead of Bush 48 to 43 percent.

The Star Tribune reports today that John Kerry has made eight campaign trips to the state and Bush seven. It cites 27 other visits by Bush or Kerry campaign surrogates as evidence that the state is a true, up-for-grabs swing state.

Another indication that Minnesota is no longer solidly Democratic: Minnesota’s Congressional delegation is split evenly along party lines, with equal numbers of Republican and Democratic senators and representatives. Of the 134 members of the Minnesota House of Representatives, 81 are Republican and 53 are Democratic–a significant majority. The state Senate is Democratic by a narrow margin, with 35 Democrats, 31 Republicans, and 1 independent. That is the closest that the Republicans have been in 30 years at gaining a majority in the state Senate, according to a Minnesota Public Radio article. The state governor, meanwhile, is a Republican. As a result, I’d have to say the state leans slightly Republican, and the trend is toward the Republicans.

I suppose it’s in the nature of a two-party system to swing back and forth between the dominance of one party or another. Minnesota has swung from a proud Humphrey-Mondale liberalism to a more contentious and more balanced political divide. Something else–Reagan-Bush conservatism? social conservatism?–has been added to the mix. For progressives like myself, it feels like a step backwards. For conservatives, it must feel like a significant victory.

Perhaps a more significant question is whether both parties have moved rightwards and the political landscape has changed in ways that a simple analysis of party victories does not recognize. I suppose that is true in many respects and not true in others; making that case would take a fairly exhaustive look at many specific issues. I shall leave that issue for you to ponder and as a possible future subject.

Next week: Garrison Keillor’s liberal lament and the politics of other states in the region.

This entry was posted on Friday, October 22nd, 2004 at 5:45 pm and is filed under Minnesota, Politics.