Still bitterly cold here. Minus 14 this morning. On Monday the sub-zero run in the Twin Cities ended, with the temperature rising above zero for the first time in 63 hours - less than 3 days. The record run of below-zero weather for the Twin Cities, according to meteorologist Paul Douglas, is 168 hours, or 7 days, back in 1912.

The low-temperature spot in the lower 48 states has been in Embarrass, Minnesota, for at least the last four days. Starting with February 3, these have been the daily lows there: -34, -42, -38, -41. Embarrass is in northeastern Minnesota, near (on?) the Iron Range and not far from the Canadian border.

Sustainable transportation is out the window - out in the cold and freezing - for us at the moment. I’m driving my wife and daughter to work and to school in the car. The bike sits, patiently waiting for the next ride.

Our thermostat read minus 23 around 6 am this morning. A few hours later it read 18 below. I checked out neighboring readings for National Weather Service stations and those indicated lows of 18 below last night, so perhaps we were in a colder pocket.

This is the coldest we’ve been since two years ago. At least it’s not as cold as it was in Winnipeg, Manitoba, yesterday, where the low was minus 38 and the high was in the minus 20’s. As you can see, I try to limit my perspective on issues like this by looking at colder places. Check out the nice WeatherOffice site maintained by the Meteorological Service of Canada if you want to do the same. It currently shows Winnipeg as the coldest place in Canada - even colder than the Arctic. If you find a similar site that has a current map for Siberia or northern Asia, let me know!

We normally keep our house at 68 degrees, but today I’m experimenting with keeping the house at 66 and turning on an electric space heater in the office where I work.

We do, however, have some wonderfully sunny rooms with southern windows. How nice it was to read in the sun yesterday, where I felt quite warm. It brings back good memories of doing the same in my father’s small wood-floored study when I was growing up.

It’s supposed to warm up some this week, but not a lot. Ah, but when it does eventually get to twenty degrees again, how nice it will feel!

Paul Douglas, the senior meteorologist at the WCCO television in the Twin Cities, continues to impress me with his scientific take on global warming. See his comments on last year’s weather and warming trends in his StarTribune weather column today:

Wednesday will be the 34th day in a row of above average temperatures in the Twin Cities. The last 3 weeks of December ran 17 degrees above average in the metro area, a premature taste of March in January. The NCDC, the National Climatic Data Center, just announced that December was the warmest on record for Minnesota and 4 New England states…NCDC just revised their numbers and it now looks like 2006 was the warmest year on record for the contiguous U.S., edging out the previous record in 1998. The data comes from a network of 1200+ climate stations around the nation, all rural, to minimize the risk of warm air blowing in from nearby cities, tainting the data record. “The past 9 years have all been among the 25 warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S., a streak which is unprecedented in the historical record,” according to NCDC. They add “the rate of warming has accelerated over the last 30 years, increasing globally since the mid 1970s at a rate approximately 3 times faster than the century-scale trend.” To paraphrase: it’s not a typical, cyclical blip. It’s a spike.

Warming is happening, and the culprit is likely created by us humans. Denial of this fact will lead to needless death and suffering. Let’s pin that reality on the conscience of anyone who advocates a do-nothing approach to global warming.

Our thermometer read 22 degrees (F) this morning, so I bundled up my daughter and myself and we biked in to her school. However, it felt colder than that outside. She weathered the ride fine in her trailer wearing her snowsuit and sitting under a blanket. I was generally OK too, wearing long underwear for the first time in a couple of weeks. My hands were fine in my mittens, but my toes, covered by a single layer of Smartwool dress socks and sitting inside hiking boots, were not. They’re still thawing out. Two layers on the toeses next time!

There’s no snow in our corner of the Upper Midwest, and it looks like it could be a brown Christmas, unfortunately. We’ve had some rain the last few days as temperatures hover around the freezing point. It’s been unusually warm for a few weeks now, and according to University of Minnesota climatologist and meteorologist Mark Seeley, who spoke this morning on Minnesota Public Radio, it’s expected to stay that way, on average, due to El Nino:

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released the new seasonal climate
outlook on Thursday this week.  They considered the continuation of
the current El Nino episode into early next spring and as a consequence
forecasted above normal temperature conditions for Minnesota over
the January through March period. The outlook for precipitation during
the period suggests drier than normal condition in SE Minnesota,
and equal chances for wetter or drier than normal conditions for the
remainder of the state.

That’s what happened last week in my corner of the Upper Midwest. On Wednesday, November 15, we were basking in 80-degree warmth here in southern Minnesota. On Friday, November 17, we had seven inches of snow and temperatures in the twenties and thirties.

My two-and-a-half-year-old daughter and I quickly put the snow to use and went sledding on the big hills near our home. After being afraid of the sled last year, she’s excited about getting in it now. She is also stronger and able to hold herself up while I pull her in the sled. She can even make her way through the snow fairly well. Most of the fun for me was in hearing her squeal in delight as we bounced our way down the hill. “Again!” she cried every time we finished a run.

I’ve managed to resume riding my bike after a few days of automobile driving due to the snow and cold. This morning’s bike ride to my daughter’s school was only slightly slushy.

And so we move on deeper into winter, with the holiday season ahead.

I’m hearing lots of hammering now as I write this, a sound I’ve heard around our town for weeks now. It’s all due to roof repairs that are required by the hail storm we had back on August 24. The hail wrecked roofs all over Northfield and in nearby towns as well. I’ve heard estimates that 80 percent of the roofs in Northfield will have to be replaced. Ours is due to be redone in a couple of weeks, just in time for the arrival of winter, or so we hope.

We had a killing frost last week, with lows around 25 degrees - our strongest sign yet of the approaching winter. Many of our gardent plants died, with the notable exception of two species of late-flowering plants: Lindley’s asters and the remarkable false hollyhocks (of the genus Malva, I believe).

I’ve spent some time readying the house and yard for winter - turning off and draining the outdoor water faucet, heaping leaves on plants, cutting out frost-withered vegetation, washing windows. And now it’s snowing outside, as had been predicted! The poor roofers! I’ve heard that the crews from warm-weather regions have left, leaving only the Upper Midwesterners. Well, many of those I expect are Hispanic immigrants who are willing to call our region home.

I ask for blessings to all roofers working in cold conditions!

My corner of the Upper Midwest, southern Minnesota, is getting its first snow right now. I can see the slushy mixture falling as I look out the window.

Here’s something I’ve pondered occasionally: We all know the long-term demographic shifts that have occurred in the United States as the warmer parts of the country - the South and Southwest - grow at a faster rate than the rest of the country. As these regions grow, that means a corresponding decrease in relative power in northern regions, with the possible exception of the Pacific Northwest. I can understand how that shift of power will work in political terms as those southern regions gain a greater share of seats in Congress.

But what will be the more subtle changes associated with that demographic shift? I suspect that with more centers of power in the south, the perceived disadvantages of the northern climate will hinder northern regions. For example, why establish a corporate headquarters in the North if a majority of people in the country are accustomed to warmer climates? For the same reason, if you’re a southerner, why schedule any meeting in the North between October and April? Why go to school or take a job in the north if you’ve never lived in a cold climate?

It’s difficult to say how much these considerations will hinder the North, but I expect they’ll be real, and the Upper Midwest will probably suffer more since it is colder and more isolated than other northern regions.

My little corner of the world got shaken up last week when it was hit by severe storms. Last Thursday, August 24, was a strange day, as my town of Northfield, Minnesota, and neighboring areas experienced two periods of large hail and later a tornado watch. Our family was at home all day, and we experienced its surreal events together. Read the rest of this entry »